What does "My covenant" refer to here?

Imām Ibn al-Jawzī (d. 597/1201) summarized the scholars' opinions in his book "Zād al-Masīr" as follows:

1. It refers to the covenant made with them in the Torah regarding the description of Muḥammad ﷺ. [Abū Ṣāliḥ from Ibn ʿAbbās]
2. It means complying with commands and avoiding prohibitions. [Al-Ḍaḥḥāk from Ibn ʿAbbās]
3. It refers to Islam. [Abū al-ʿĀliyah]
4. It refers to the covenant mentioned in the verse: "Allah made a covenant aforetime with the Children of Israel and We raised among them twelve chieftains" (5:12). [Qatādah]